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Tanveer Abbas Ghulam Nabi Muhammad W. Boot Fiaz Hussain Muhammad I. Azam HuiJun Jin Muhammad Faisal 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(4):297-310
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin in northern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting(SUFI-2) method to investigate the associated uncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period(1991–2000) with an initial 4-year warm-up period(1987–1990), and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period(2001–2010). The model evaluation indices R~2(the coefficient of determination), NS(the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBIAS(percent bias) for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows. To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor(a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU) and r-factors(average wideness width of the 95 PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values) were taken into account. The 95 PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factor was 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients(R~2 and NS) for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95 PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibration and validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increased number of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonable parameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty during the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessment of water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices. 相似文献
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Muhammad Dawood Atta-ur Rahman Sami Ullah Ghani Rahman Kamran Azam 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(16):471
The present study explores the spatial and temporal deviations in temperature using Monte Carlo (MC) and Sen’s slope (SS) approaches in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Climate change holds sturdy association against the temperature trend that has generated adverse impacts in the form of floods. In this attempt, for trend analysis, temperature has been selected as a meteorological parameter. This study mainly focuses on exploring the tendency in average temperature with respect to time and the consequential flood recurrences in the region. For the current study, data regarding temperature were typically collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. In the study region, there are a total of seven meteorological station falls namely Dir, Chitral, Drosh, Saidu, Malam Jabba, Kalam, and Timergara. The temperature time series data was calculated and analyzed using MC and SS approaches for trend detection in order to demonstrate the kind of fluctuation in the Hindu Kush region. The resultant analysis further revealed that in the meteorological station of Dir, a more significant positive trend (α?=?0.0001) was found in mean monthly maximum, minimum, and monthly normal temperature. Likewise, at Drosh, a positive trend is detected in mean monthly maximum (α?=?0.04), monthly minimum (α?=?0.003), and monthly average (α?=?0.0005). Moreover, at Saidu met station, there is also a trend detected in temperature sub-variables such as monthly maximum (α?=?0.0001) and monthly minimum (α?=?0.001). In addition to these, at Kalam, there is a temperature trend noted for monthly minimum (α?=?0.01) and monthly average (α?=?0.02). Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that there is no trend detected in the remaining stations, i.e., Chitral, Malam Jabba, Drosh, and Timergara. The overall analysis discovered that there is a sturdy relationship between climate change phenomenon and temperature variability. After using SS test to the temperature data of mean monthly maximum (TMMMax), the results explored that Kalam station grips the highest magnitude, i.e., Q?=?0.76; however, Timergara shows the lowermost, i.e., Q?=???0.34. For the monthly minimum temperature (TMMMin), at Kalam again, the highest value (Q?=?0.005) was detected; however, other stations revealed a negative trend, except Drosh which express no change in terms of magnitude. Similarly, in terms of monthly normal temperature (TMNor), Timergara station (Q?=???0.4) verified a negative trend magnitude and Malam Jabba station again trendless. Among all, the met station of Malam Jabba which holds an altitude of 2591 m is a hilly station just followed by Kalam having 2103 m height; however, Dir holds 1375 m height and the rest of the met stations show low elevation. The main reason for the temperature difference is the altitude of the study region. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Urban resilience to natural disasters has constantly been a challenge to sustainable development in human societies. Since Iran is always exposed to natural disasters such as... 相似文献
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Water Resources - Hydrological runoff prediction in a reliable and precise manner contributes significantly to the optimal management of hydropower resources. Considering the importance of runoff... 相似文献
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Farooq Azam Grieg F. Steward David C. Smith Hugh W. Ducklow 《Journal of Earth System Science》1994,103(2):341-351
In the Arabian Sea, temporal contiguity of highly oligotrophic and eutrophic periods, along with high water temperatures,
may result in unique features of bacteriaorganic matter coupling, nutrient cycling and sedimentation, which are unlike those
in the classical oligotrophic and eutrophic waters. Bacteria-phytoplankton interactions are suggested to influence phytoplankton
aggregation and its timing. It is also hypothesized that, within aggregates, hydrolytic ectoenzyme activity, together with
condensation reactions between the hydrolysis products, produce molecular species which are not readily degraded by pelagic
bacteria. Accumulation of a reservoir of such slow-to-degrade dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is proposed to be a carbon flux
and energy buffer, which moderates the response of bacteria to the dramatic variations in primary production in the Arabian
Sea. Use of the slow-to-degrade DOC pool during the intermonsoon could temporarily render the Arabian Sea net-heterotrophic
and a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Stored DOC is also suggested to balance the observed deficit between mesopelagic carbon demand and the
sinking particulate organic carbon supply. Knowledge of the significance of bacteria in carbon storage and cycling in the
Arabian Sea is needed to understand the response of the ocean’s biogeochemical state to strong physical forcing and climate
change. 相似文献
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Azam Khan Saadat Ashraf 《湿地科学》2005,3(4):249-257
This paper presented chemical characteristics of wetland inflow diffuse dust and dirt. Single land use impervious areas (parking and roads) were observed and analyzed in commercial and residential areas for organic matters, phosphorus and heavy metals. The buildup data were collected for approximately six months from December to June. The frequency of monitoring was observed daily for the first two months, twice a week for the next two months and once a week for the last two months. The results indicated significant variations in the organic matters and heavy metals strength and total accumulation among the observed areas. High pollutants strength was associated with smaller dust and dirt (DD) particles. Concentrations of phosphorus varied between 5.1 μg/g and 8.3 μg/g in DD particle less than 75 μm and account for 35%-60% of the total phosphorus. The organic matter accumulation rate associated with particles less than 600 μm and greater than 600 μm was 0.1-1 g·(curb-m)-1·d-1 and 0.1-1.5 g·(curb-m)-1·d-1 , respectively. DD particles greater than 600 μm consist of 70%-90% of leaves and other plant residues. The strength of heavy metals was more at road compared to parking areas both in commercial and residential areas. Percentage of Zn, Cu and Pb attached with particles less than 200 μm were in the range of 50%-70% in parking, 45%-90% on smooth roads and 30%-80% on rough roads. All the dust and dirt exhibited rising trend with time. Dust and dirt buildup data follow a non-linear accumulation function and can be presented better either by an exponential or power function. 相似文献